The mortality rate of most patients with
atrial fibrillation (AF) exceeds the
stroke rate, but predictors of mortality have not been well defined. The
Atrial Fibrillation Clopidogrel Trial With
Irbesartan for Prevention of Vascular Events (ACTIVE A) recruited patients with AF who were unsuitable to receive
vitamin K-antagonists and were randomized to
aspirin alone versus
aspirin plus
clopidogrel. We investigated independent predictors of all-cause mortality by multivariable Cox regression analysis and explored interactions with assigned antiplatelet
therapy. Of the 7,554 patients enrolled with a mean age of 71 years, 1,687 (22%) patients died during the median follow-up of 3.7 years (annualized mortality rate 6.4%/year). Assignment to dual antiplatelet
therapy had no effect on mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90 to 1.1) or on vascular and nonvascular death. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality were advancing age, lower body mass index (HR 1.4 < 25 kg/m2, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.6),
diabetes mellitus, Latin American ethnicity (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.6), previous
stroke or
transient ischemic attack,
peripheral artery disease, increased resting heart rate (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4 per 30 bpm), lower diastolic blood pressure,
coronary artery disease,
heart failure,
left ventricular systolic dysfunction,
hemoglobin level of <13 mg/dl, and reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate. In conclusion, in this large clinical trial cohort of patients with AF, treatment with
clopidogrel plus
aspirin versus
aspirin monotherapy did not affect all-cause mortality, vascular death, or nonvascular death. Novel independent predictors of increased mortality included lower diastolic blood pressure and Latin American ethnicity.