A comprehensive model to predict severe acute graft-versus-host disease in acute leukemia patients after haploidentical hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) remains the major cause of early mortality after haploidentical related donor (HID) hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We aimed to establish a comprehensive model which could predict severe aGVHD after HID HSCT.

METHODS:

Consecutive 470 acute leukemia patients receiving HID HSCT according to the protocol registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03756675) were enrolled, 70% of them (n = 335) were randomly selected as training cohort and the remains 30% (n = 135) were used as validation cohort.

RESULTS:

The equation was as follows: Probability (grade III-IV aGVHD) = [Formula: see text], where Y = -0.0288 × (age) + 0.7965 × (gender) + 0.8371 × (CD3 + /CD14 + cells ratio in graft) + 0.5829 × (donor/recipient relation) - 0.0089 × (CD8 + cell counts in graft) - 2.9046. The threshold of probability was 0.057392 which helped separate patients into high- and low-risk groups. The 100-day cumulative incidence of grade III-IV aGVHD in the low- and high-risk groups was 4.1% (95% CI 1.9-6.3%) versus 12.8% (95% CI 7.4-18.2%) (P = 0.001), 3.2% (95% CI 1.2-5.1%) versus 10.6% (95% CI 4.7-16.5%) (P = 0.006), and 6.1% (95% CI 1.3-10.9%) versus 19.4% (95% CI 6.3-32.5%) (P = 0.017), respectively, in total, training, and validation cohort. The rates of grade III-IV skin and gut aGVHD in high-risk group were both significantly higher than those of low-risk group. This model could also predict grade II-IV and grade I-IV aGVHD.

CONCLUSIONS:

We established a model which could predict the development of severe aGVHD in HID HSCT recipients.

• Authors: Meng-Zhu Shen, Shen-Da Hong, Rui Lou, Rui-Ze Chen, Xiao-Hui Zhang, Lan-Ping Xu, Yu Wang, Chen-Hua Yan, Huan Chen, Yu-Hong Chen, Wei Han, Feng-Rong Wang, Jing-Zhi Wang, Kai-Yan Liu, Xiao-Jun Huang, Xiao-Dong Mo
• Journal: Experimental hematology & oncology (Exp Hematol Oncol) Vol. 11 Issue 1 Pg. 25 (May 03 2022) ISSN: 2162-3619 [Print] England
• PMID: 35505384 (Publication Type: Journal Article)
• Copyright: © 2022. The Author(s).