Risk Stratification Based on Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation Score in Patients With Child-Pugh B Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding.

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:

Optimal candidates for early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) remain unclear. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that risk stratification using the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) may be useful to identify a subgroup at high risk of mortality or further bleeding that may benefit from early TIPS in patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB.

APPROACH AND RESULTS:

We analyzed the pooled individual data from two previous studies of 608 patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB who received standard treatment between 2010 and 2017 in China. The concordance index values of CLIF-C ADs for 6-week and 1-year mortality (0.715 and 0.708) were significantly better than those of active bleeding at endoscopy (0.633 [P < 0.001] and 0.556 [P < 0.001]) and other prognostic models. With X-tile software identifying an optimal cutoff value, patients were categorized as low risk (CLIF-C ADs <48), intermediate risk (CLIF-C ADs 48-56), and high risk (CLIF-C ADs >56), with a 5.6%, 16.8%, and 25.4% risk of 6-week death, respectively. Nevertheless, the performance of CLIF-C ADs for predicting a composite endpoint of 6-week death or further bleeding was not satisfactory (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.588). A nomogram incorporating components of CLIF-C ADs and albumin, platelet, active bleeding, and ascites significantly improved the prediction accuracy (AUC, 0.725).

CONCLUSIONS:

In patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB, risk stratification using CLIF-C ADs identifies a subgroup with high risk of death that may derive survival benefit from early TIPS. With improved prediction accuracy for 6-week death or further bleeding, the data-driven nomogram may help to stratify patients in randomized trials. Future external validation of these findings in patients with different etiologies is required.

• Authors: Yong Lv, Zhengyu Wang, Kai Li, Qiuhe Wang, Wei Bai, Xulong Yuan, Tianlei Yu, Jing Niu, Zhiping Yang, Xuan Zhu, Jianbo Zhao, Hui Xue, Zaibo Jiang, Yuzheng Zhuge, Chunqing Zhang, Junhui Sun, Pengxu Ding, Weixin Ren, Yingchun Li, Kewei Zhang, Wenguang Zhang, Wengang Guo, Bohan Luo, Xiaomei Li, Jie Yuan, Na Han, Ying Zhu, Chuangye He, Zhanxin Yin, Daiming Fan, Guohong Han
• Journal: Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) (Hepatology) Vol. 73 Issue 4 Pg. 1478-1493 (04 2021) ISSN: 1527-3350 [Electronic] United States
• PMID: 32706906 (Publication Type: Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't)
• Copyright: © 2020 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Topics

• Acute Disease (epidemiology)
• Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure
• Adult
• Aged
• China (epidemiology)
• Comorbidity
• Esophageal and Gastric Varices (epidemiology, mortality, surgery)
• Female
• Follow-Up Studies
• Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage (epidemiology, mortality, surgery)
• Humans
• Liver Cirrhosis (epidemiology)
• Male
• Middle Aged
• Nomograms
• Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic (methods)
• Prognosis
• Prospective Studies
• Research Design
• Retrospective Studies
• Risk Assessment
• Treatment Outcome