Effective methods for predicting
COVID-19 disease trajectories are urgently needed. Here, ELISA and coronavirus
antigen microarray (COVAM) analysis mapped antibody
epitopes in the plasma of
COVID-19 patients (n = 86) experiencing a wide-range of disease states. The experiments identified
antibodies to a 21-residue
epitope from nucleocapsid (termed Ep9) associated with severe disease, including admission to the ICU, requirement for
ventilators, or death. Importantly, anti-Ep9
antibodies can be detected within six days post-symptom onset and sometimes within one day. Furthermore, anti-Ep9
antibodies correlate with various comorbidities and hallmarks of immune hyperactivity. We introduce a simple-to-calculate, disease risk factor score to quantitate each patients comorbidities and age. For patients with anti-Ep9
antibodies, scores above 3.0 predict more severe disease outcomes with a 13.42 Likelihood Ratio (96.7% specificity). The results lay the groundwork for a new type of
COVID-19 prognostic to allow early identification and triage of high-risk patients. Such information could guide more effective therapeutic intervention.