Abstract | AIMS: Risk estimation is important to motivate patients to adhere to treatment and to identify those in whom additional treatments may be warranted and expensive treatments might be most cost effective. Our aim was to develop a simple risk model based on readily available risk factors for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Models were developed in the CLARIFY registry of patients with stable CAD, first incorporating only simple clinical variables and then with the inclusion of assessments of left ventricular function, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and haemoglobin levels. The outcome of cardiovascular death over ∼5 years was analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Calibration of the models was assessed in an external study, the CORONOR registry of patients with stable coronary disease. We provide formulae for calculation of the risk score and simple integer points-based versions of the scores with associated look-up risk tables. Only the models based on simple clinical variables provided both good c-statistics (0.74 in CLARIFY and 0.80 or over in CORONOR), with no lack of calibration in the external dataset. CONCLUSION: STUDY REGISTRATION: The CLARIFY registry is registered in the ISRCTN registry of clinical trials (ISRCTN43070564).
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Authors | Ian Ford, Michele Robertson, Nicola Greenlaw, Christophe Bauters, Gilles Lemesle, Emmanuel Sorbets, Roberto Ferrari, Jean-Claude Tardif, Michal Tendera, Kim Fox, Philippe Gabriel Steg, CLARIFY Investigators |
Journal | European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes
(Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes)
Vol. 7
Issue 3
Pg. 287-294
(05 03 2021)
ISSN: 2058-1742 [Electronic] England |
PMID | 31922541
(Publication Type: Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't)
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Copyright | © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. |
Topics |
- Coronary Artery Disease
(complications, epidemiology)
- Humans
- Myocardial Infarction
- Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
- Registries
- Risk Factors
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