Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in CKD: The CRIC Study.

Abstract

Introduction:

Heart failure (HF) is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD); identifying patients with CKD at high risk for HF may guide clinical care. We assessed the prognostic value of cardiac biomarkers and echocardiographic variables for 10-year HF prediction compared with a published clinical HF prediction equation in a cohort of participants with CKD.

Methods:

We studied 2147 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) participants without prior HF with complete clinical, cardiac biomarker (N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] and high sensitivity troponin-T [hsTnT]), and echocardiographic data (left ventricular mass [LVM] and left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] data). We compared the discrimination of the 11-variable Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) HF prediction equation with LVM, LVEF, hsTnT, and NT-proBNP to predict 10-year risk of hospitalization for HF using a Fine and Gray modeling approach. We separately evaluated prediction of HF with preserved and reduced LVEF (LVEF ≥50% and <50%, respectively). We assessed discrimination with internally valid C-indices using 10-fold cross-validation.

Results:

Participants' mean (SD) age was 59 (11) years, 53% were men, 43% were Black, and mean (SD) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 44 (16) ml/min per 1.73 m2. A total of 324 incident HF hospitalizations occurred during median (interquartile range) 10.0 (5.7-10.0) years of follow-up. The ARIC HF model with clinical variables had a C-index of 0.68. Echocardiographic variables predicted HF (C-index 0.70) comparably to the published ARIC HF model, while NT-proBNP and hsTnT together (C-index 0.73) had significantly better discrimination (P = 0.004). A model including cardiac biomarkers, echocardiographic variables, and clinical variables had a C-index of 0.77. Discrimination of HF with preserved LVEF was lower than for HF with reduced LVEF for most models.

Conclusion:

The ARIC HF prediction model for 10-year HF risk had modest discrimination among adults with CKD. NT-proBNP and hsTnT discriminated better than the ARIC HF model and at least as well as a model with echocardiographic variables. HF clinical prediction models tailored to adults with CKD are needed. Until then, measurement of NT-proBNP and hsTnT may be a low-burden approach to predicting HF in this population, as they offer moderate discrimination.

• Authors: Leila R Zelnick, Michael G Shlipak, Elsayed Z Soliman, Amanda Anderson, Robert Christenson, Mayank Kansal, Rajat Deo, Jiang He, Bernard G Jaar, Matthew R Weir, Panduranga Rao, Debbie L Cohen, Jordana B Cohen, Harold I Feldman, Alan Go, Nisha Bansal, CRIC Study Investigators
• Journal: Kidney international reports (Kidney Int Rep) Vol. 7 Issue 4 Pg. 708-719 (Apr 2022) ISSN: 2468-0249 [Electronic] United States
• PMID: 35497796 (Publication Type: Journal Article)
• Copyright: © 2022 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc.