Urinary [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and serum procalcitonin to predict and assess the risk for short-term outcomes in septic and non-septic critically ill patients.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Biomarkers can play a critical role by facilitating diagnosis and stratification of disease, as well as assessment or prediction of disease severity. Urinary tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 7 product ([TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7]) predict the development and progression of AKI and recently procalcitonin (PCT), a widely used biomarker for sepsis diagnosis and management, has been associated with AKI occurrence in ICU patients. To assess combinations of [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and PCT results for prediction and risk stratification of short-term outcomes in septic and non-septic patients, a retrospective cohort analysis of critically ill patients was performed in a multidisciplinary ICU. ROC curve analysis was used in order to evaluate predictive performance of combined results of [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and PCT at the time of admission for AKI development. To verify the utility of adding [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and PCT results for risk assessment, we evaluated the predictive value of having a single-marker positivity compared to a double-marker positivity using the widely used cut-off of 0.3 (ng/mL)2/1000 for [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and 0.5 μg/L for PCT. Risk assessment for AKI occurrence within 48 h, acute kidney disease (AKD) and mortality at 7 days was performed by logistic/Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS:

433 patients were analysed, of whom 168 had AKI within 48 h (93 septic and 65 non-septic patients). Combination of [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and PCT showed a good predictive ability for AKI occurrence (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.77-0.86, p < 0.001, Sens 78%, Spec 73%). Combinations of biomarkers increased the odd ratios (OR) considerably. A single-marker positivity showed a fourfold risk increase, while the double-marker positivity a 26-fold risk increase for AKI occurrence. Moreover, the double-marker positivity showed an elevated risk for AKD at 7 days in non-septic patients (OR 15.9, 95% CI 3,21-73,57, p < 0.001) and for mortality within 7 days in septic patients (HR 4.1, 95% CI 1.4-11.8, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS:

Although combining the results of [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] and PCT may be a useful tool to identify and stratify ICU patients at high risk for septic AKI and short-term adverse outcomes, data should be confirmed in a large prospective study.

• Authors: Ilaria Godi, Silvia De Rosa, Francesca Martino, Simona Bazzano, Marina Martin, Elisa Boni, Maria Rosa Carta, Claudia Tamayo Diaz, Gaia Mari, Anna Lorenzin, Massimo de Cal, Valentina Corradi, Carlotta Caprara, Davide Giavarina, Claudio Ronco
• Journal: Annals of intensive care (Ann Intensive Care) Vol. 10 Issue 1 Pg. 46 (Apr 21 2020) ISSN: 2110-5820 [Print] Germany
• PMID: 32318859 (Publication Type: Journal Article)