SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance data can predict hospitalizations and ICU admissions.

Abstract

We measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Attica, Greece, by RT-qPCR for the environmental surveillance of COVID-19 for 6 months. The lag between RNA load and pandemic indicators (COVID-19 hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) was calculated using a grid search. Our results showed that RNA load in raw wastewater is a leading indicator of positive COVID-19 cases, new hospitalization and admission into ICUs by 5, 8 and 9 days, respectively. Modelling techniques based on distributed/fixed lag modelling, linear regression and artificial neural networks were utilized to build relationships between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in wastewater and pandemic health indicators. SARS-CoV-2 mutation analysis in wastewater during the third pandemic wave revealed that the alpha-variant was dominant. Our results demonstrate that clinical and environmental surveillance data can be combined to create robust models to study the on-going COVID-19 infection dynamics and provide an early warning for increased hospital admissions.

• Authors: Aikaterini Galani, Reza Aalizadeh, Marios Kostakis, Athina Markou, Nikiforos Alygizakis, Theodore Lytras, Panagiotis G Adamopoulos, Jordan Peccia, David C Thompson, Aikaterini Kontou, Apostolos Karagiannidis, Evi S Lianidou, Margaritis Avgeris, Dimitrios Paraskevis, Sotirios Tsiodras, Andreas Scorilas, Vasilis Vasiliou, Meletios-Athanasios Dimopoulos, Nikolaos S Thomaidis
• Journal: The Science of the total environment (Sci Total Environ) Vol. 804 Pg. 150151 (Jan 15 2022) ISSN: 1879-1026 [Electronic] Netherlands
• PMID: 34623953 (Publication Type: Journal Article)
• Copyright: Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical References

• RNA, Viral
• Waste Water

Topics

• COVID-19
• Hospitalization
• Humans
• Intensive Care Units
• RNA, Viral
• SARS-CoV-2
• Wastewater
• Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring