As a result of epidemic levels of
obesity and
diabetes mellitus,
nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (
NAFLD) and
nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will contribute to increases in the liver-related disease burden in Switzerland. A Markov model was built to quantify
fibrosis progression among the
NAFLD and NASH populations, and predict disease burden up to 2030. Long-term trending of
NAFLD prevalence was based on changes in the prevalence of adult
obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections. The prevalence of
NAFLD increased up to 2030 in tandem with projected increases in adult
obesity. By 2030, there were an estimated 2,234,000 (1,918,000–2,553,000)
NAFLD cases, or 24.3% (20.9–27.8%) of the total Swiss population (all ages). Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than
NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced
liver disease are projected to increase by approximately 40% by 2030, and incident
NAFLD liver deaths to increase from 580 deaths in 2018 to 820 deaths in 2030. Continued growth in
obesity, in combination with an aging population, will result in increasing number of cases of advanced
liver disease and mortality related to
NAFLD and NASH. Slowing the growth in
obesity and
metabolic syndrome, along with future potential
therapies, are required to reduce
liver disease burden.  .