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The risk of rinderpest re-introduction in post-eradication era.

Abstract
In 2011, ten years after the last reported outbreak, the eradication of rinderpest was declared. However, as rinderpest virus stocks still exist, there remains a risk of rinderpest re-introduction. A semi-quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess this risk, which was defined as the probability of at least one host becoming infected and infectious outside a laboratory anywhere in the world within a one-year period. Pathways leading to rinderpest re-introduction were: deliberate or accidental use of virus in laboratories, deliberate or accidental use of vaccines, host exposure to an environmental source of virus, and use of virus for anti-animal biological warfare. The probability of each pathway step occurring was estimated through expert opinion elicitation. The risk estimate was associated with a high degree of uncertainty. It was estimated to range from negligible to high, with the median being very low. The accidental use of laboratory virus stocks was the highest risk pathway. Reducing the number of virus stocks and restricting their use, as well as upgrading the laboratories to a higher biosafety level, would effectively decrease the maximum and median risks. Likewise, ensuring that remaining vaccine stocks are not used and are instead destroyed or relocated to a limited number of regional repositories would also have a major effect on these estimates. However, these measures are unlikely to eliminate the risk of rinderpest re-introduction so that maintaining response preparedness is essential.
AuthorsGuillaume Fournié, Bryony Anne Jones, Wendy Beauvais, Juan Lubroth, Felix Njeumi, Angus Cameron, Dirk Udo Pfeiffer
JournalPreventive veterinary medicine (Prev Vet Med) Vol. 113 Issue 2 Pg. 175-84 (Feb 01 2014) ISSN: 1873-1716 [Electronic] Netherlands
PMID24299903 (Publication Type: Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't)
CopyrightCopyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Topics
  • Animals
  • Cattle
  • Cattle Diseases (prevention & control, virology)
  • Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control, veterinary)
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Rinderpest (prevention & control, virology)
  • Rinderpest virus (growth & development)
  • Risk Assessment (methods)

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