Background. Multifactorial scorings, radiological scores, and
biochemical markers may help in early prediction of severity,
pancreatic necrosis, and mortality in patients with
acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. BISAP, APACHE-II, MOSS, and SIRS scores were calculated using data within 24 hrs of admission, whereas Ranson and Glasgow scores after 48 hrs of admission; CTSI was calculated on day 4 whereas
IL-6 and CRP values at end of study. Predictive accuracy of scoring systems, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of various markers in prediction of severe
acute pancreatitis, organ failure,
pancreatic necrosis, admission to intensive care units and mortality were calculated. Results. Of 72 patients, 31 patients had organ failure and local complication classified as severe
acute pancreatitis, 17 had
pancreatic necrosis, and 9 died (12.5%). Area under curves for Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, APACHE-II, BISAP, CTSI,
IL-6, and CRP in predicting SAP were 0.85, 0.75, 0.73, 0.73, 0.88, 0.80, 0.90, and 0.91, respectively, for
pancreatic necrosis 0.70, 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.68, 0.61, 0.75, 0.86, and 0.90, respectively, and for mortality 0.84, 0.83, 0.77, 0.76, 0.86, 0.83, 0.57, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively. Conclusion. CRP and
IL-6 have shown a promising result in early detection of severity and
pancreatic necrosis whereas APACHE-II and Ranson score in predicting AP related mortality in this study.