We evaluated the incidence of and factors associated with
anal cancer using longitudinal data from the prospective U.S. Military Natural History Study (1985-2008). Poisson regression and Cox proportional hazard models were utilized.
RESULTS: Among 4506 HIV-infected men with 37 806 person-years of follow-up,
anal cancer rates (per 100 000 person-years) increased five-fold, from 11 in the pre-
HAART to 55 in the
HAART era (P = 0.02). Rates continued to increase, reaching 128 in 2006-2008. Persons with
HIV infection for more than 15 years had a 12-fold higher rate than those with less than 5 years (348 vs. 28, P < 0.01). At
cancer diagnosis (n = 19), median age was 42 years, median CD4 cell count was 432 cells/microl, 74% had a CD4 nadir cell count less than 200 cells/microl, 42% had a prior
AIDS event, and 74% had received
HAART. From separate models, prior
AIDS event (hazard ratio 3.88, P = 0.01) and lower CD4 nadir (hazard ratio 0.85 per 50 cell, P = 0.03) were associated with
anal cancer, with a trend for a history of
gonorrhea (hazard ratio 2.43, P = 0.07). Duration of
HAART use was not associated with a reduced risk of
anal cancer (hazard ratio 0.94, P = 0.42).
CONCLUSION: Incidence rates of
anal cancer have progressively increased during the HIV epidemic. Persons with a longer duration of
HIV infection have a substantially higher rate of
anal cancer. As HIV-infected persons are experiencing longer life expectancies and
HAART does not appear protective of
anal cancer, studies on preventive strategies are needed.