Background Management of acute necrotising
pancreatitis is often challenging for clinicians.
Secondary infection of the necrotic collections leads to
sepsis and warrants intervention. Minimally invasive techniques like
catheter drainage have recently been proposed over more risky and morbid traditional open procedures. Factors that can predict successful
catheter drainage of the necrotic pancreatic collection are still unclear and not well established. Materials and methods This study is designed as a retrospective cross-sectional observational study to investigate the association of 21 factors in predicting successful
catheter drainage. Data from 30 patients admitted with acute necrotising
pancreatitis treated with
catheter drainage were collected and analysed. Twenty-one factors, including demographic variables, disease severity factors, drainage criteria, and morphological criteria on imaging, were studied for their predictive association with successful outcomes. Univariate analysis was done for each variable against the outcome. The study was conducted between December 2012 to March 2017. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Patients with no organ involvement responded better to primary
catheter drainage. Patients with BMI>25 and multi-organ failure were poor candidates for primary
catheter drainage. Clinically unwell patients with a Bedside Index for Severity in
Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score of ≥4 had a negative outcome on
catheter drainage and usually ended up in a
surgical procedure or eventually succumbed to the disease. Other variables included in our study did not statistically associate with the success or failure of percutaneous
catheter drainage. Conclusion BMI >25,
multiple organ failure, and BISAP score ≥ 4 are independent negative predictors for the success of
catheter drainage in infected necrotising
pancreatitis. No organ failure showed a positive predictor for successful
catheter drainage. Further studies are required to explore these predictive factors in a larger sample size to predict the success of
catheter drainage in infected
pancreatic necrosis.