Abstract | OBJECTIVES: To derive a model of paediatric postdischarge mortality following acute infectious illness. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 2 hospitals in South-western Uganda. PARTICIPANTS: 1307 children of 6 months to 5 years of age were admitted with a proven or suspected infection. 1242 children were discharged alive and followed up 6 months following discharge. The 6-month follow-up rate was 98.3%. INTERVENTIONS: None. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was postdischarge mortality within 6 months following the initial hospital discharge. RESULTS: 64 children died during admission (5.0%) and 61 died within 6 months of discharge (4.9%). Of those who died following discharge, 31 (51%) occurred within the first 30 days. The final adjusted model for the prediction of postdischarge mortality included the variables mid-upper arm circumference (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.97, per 1 mm increase), time since last hospitalisation (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.93, for each increased period of no hospitalisation), oxygen saturation (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 0·99, per 1% increase), abnormal Blantyre Coma Scale score (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1·18 to 4.83), and HIV-positive status (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.36 to 6.53). This model produced a receiver operating characteristic curve with an area under the curve of 0.82. With sensitivity of 80%, our model had a specificity of 66%. Approximately 35% of children would be identified as high risk (11.1% mortality risk) and the remaining would be classified as low risk (1.4% mortality risk), in a similar cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality following discharge is a poorly recognised contributor to child mortality. Identification of at-risk children is critical in developing postdischarge interventions. A simple prediction tool that uses 5 easily collected variables can be used to identify children at high risk of death after discharge. Improved discharge planning and care could be provided for high-risk children.
|
Authors | M O Wiens, E Kumbakumba, C P Larson, J M Ansermino, J Singer, N Kissoon, H Wong, A Ndamira, J Kabakyenga, J Kiwanuka, G Zhou |
Journal | BMJ open
(BMJ Open)
Vol. 5
Issue 11
Pg. e009449
(Nov 25 2015)
ISSN: 2044-6055 [Electronic] England |
PMID | 26608641
(Publication Type: Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't)
|
Copyright | Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/ |
Topics |
- Acute Disease
- Area Under Curve
- Child Mortality
- Child, Preschool
- Female
- Hospitalization
- Humans
- Infant
- Infections
(mortality)
- Male
- Models, Biological
- Patient Discharge
- Prospective Studies
- ROC Curve
- Risk Factors
- Uganda
(epidemiology)
|