Entecavir treatment prevents disease progression in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: establishment of a novel logistical regression model.

Hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has a poor prognosis with very high mortality. Unfortunately, most prognostic predictive models of liver failure are complicated and offer suboptimal sensitivity. Experience in entecavir (ETV)-treated patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-ACLF is limited.
This study was designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ETV in patients with HBV-ACLF and to develop a novel model (Tongji prognostic predictor model, TPPM) for prognostic prediction of HBV-ACLF patients.
In this retrospective study, 248 patients with HBV-ACLF were enrolled. There were no significant differences in baseline clinical and virologic characteristics between patients treated with and without ETV.
The 1- and 3-month survival rates of patients in the ETV-treated group (n = 124) were 72.58 and 61.29%, respectively, significantly higher than that in NA-free group (n = 124), which were 53.23 and 45.97%, respectively. By Hosmor and Lemeshow test, TPPM for HBV-ACLF had a very good degree of fit with disease prognosis. Based on this unique group of patients, the TPPM scoring offered a better prediction value in both specificity and sensitivity for 3-month mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF compared with MELD scoring system with statistically significant difference. In the patients with HBV-ACLF, using a cutoff of 0.22 for 3-month predicted mortality by TPPM, the positive predictive value was 93.6% and negative predictive value 91.3%.
ETV treatment prevented disease progression and increased the survival of patients with HBV-ACLF. The established TPPM scoring system offers superior predictor value in both specificity and sensitivity for HBV-ACLF patients when compared with MELD.
AuthorsKe Ma, Wei Guo, Meifang Han, Guang Chen, Tao Chen, Zenguang Wu, Daofeng Yang, Jiaquan Huang, Yuancheng Huang, Xiping Zhao, Deying Tian, Jianxin Song, Junying Qi, Qin Ning
JournalHepatology international (Hepatol Int) Vol. 6 Issue 4 Pg. 735-43 (Oct 2012) ISSN: 1936-0533 [Print] United States
PMID26201523 (Publication Type: Journal Article)

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