Predictors of mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing extrahepatic surgery: comparison of Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease-based indices.

Underlying liver cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality after surgery. Previous studies have reported conflicting results about the value of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores as predictors of post-operative mortality. This study was designed to compare the capacities of CTP, MELD and MELD-based indices in predicting mortality for patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent elective extrahepatic surgery.
The medical records of 79 patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent elective extrahepatic surgery under general anaesthesia from December 2000 to December 2009 were reviewed retrospectively.
The median follow-up period was 21 months, and the mortality rate was 24.1% (n = 19). Among the 19 mortalities, nine (11.4%) occurred while the patient was hospitalized after surgery. Intraoperative transfusion amount (≥700 mL; odds ratio 6.294, P = 0.004) and the integrated MELD score (≥34; odds ratio 6.654, P = 0.007) were significantly correlated with post-operative mortality. CTP score (hazard ratio 1.575, P = 0.012) was significantly correlated with overall mortality.
Integrated MELD may be a more accurate predictor of operative mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing extrahepatic surgery than CTP and other MELD-Na based indices. However, overall mortality may be reflected more accurately by CTP score. Further large-scale study will be needed to validate this result.
AuthorsDong Hyun Kim, Sung Hoon Kim, Kyung Sik Kim, Woo Jung Lee, Nam Kyu Kim, Sung Hoon Noh, Choong Bai Kim
JournalANZ journal of surgery (ANZ J Surg) Vol. 84 Issue 11 Pg. 832-6 (Nov 2014) ISSN: 1445-2197 [Electronic] Australia
PMID23647879 (Publication Type: Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't)
Copyright© 2013 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Elective Surgical Procedures (methods)
  • End Stage Liver Disease (diagnosis, etiology, mortality)
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Health Status Indicators
  • Humans
  • Intraoperative Period
  • Liver Cirrhosis (complications, mortality)
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Postoperative Period
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Republic of Korea (epidemiology)
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment (methods)
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Survival Rate (trends)
  • Young Adult

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