This ancillary study of the Physicians' Health Study used a risk set sampling method to select 788 matched pairs. For each case of incident
heart failure, we randomly selected a control among subjects that were free of
heart failure and alive at the time of index case diagnosis and matched on age, year of birth, race, and time of blood collection. Plasma
phospholipid fatty acids were measured using gas chromatography.
Heart failure was ascertained using annual follow-up questionnaire and validated in a subsample. In a multivariable conditional logistic regression, odds ratios (95% CI) for
heart failure were 1.0 (ref), 1.06 (0.75-1.48), 1.20 (0.85-1.68), and 1.58 (1.11-2.25) across consecutive quartiles of cis-
palmitoleic acid (P for trend 0.009). Each SD increase in plasma cis-
palmitoleic acid was associated with 17% higher odds of
heart failure (95% CI: 2% to 33%) in a multivariable model. In a secondary analysis, each SD increase of log-
stearoyl-coA desaturase activity (16:1n-7/16:0 ratio) was positively associated with the risk of
heart failure (odds ratio: 1.14 [95% CI: 1.00 to 1.29]), whereas
oleic acid and
cis-vaccenic acid concentrations were not related to
heart failure risk.
CONCLUSIONS: