The current paper provides an analysis of the potential number of
cancer cases that might be prevented if half the U.S. population increased its fruit and vegetable consumption by one serving each per day. This number is contrasted with an upper-bound estimate of concomitant
cancer cases that might be theoretically attributed to the intake of
pesticide residues arising from the same additional fruit and vegetable consumption. The
cancer prevention estimates were derived using a published meta-analysis of nutritional epidemiology studies. The
cancer risks were estimated using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methods,
cancer potency estimates from rodent bioassays, and
pesticide residue sampling data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The resulting estimates are that approximately 20,000
cancer cases per year could be prevented by increasing fruit and vegetable consumption, while up to 10
cancer cases per year could be caused by the added
pesticide consumption. These estimates have significant uncertainties (e.g., potential residual confounding in the fruit and vegetable epidemiologic studies and reliance on rodent bioassays for
cancer risk). However, the overwhelming difference between benefit and risk estimates provides confidence that consumers should not be concerned about
cancer risks from consuming conventionally-grown fruits and vegetables.