Abstract | OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the predictive performance of bleeding risk-estimation tools in a cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing anticoagulation. BACKGROUND: Three bleeding risk-prediction schemes have been derived for and validated in patients with AF: HEMORR(2)HAGES (Hepatic or Renal Disease, Ethanol Abuse, Malignancy, Older Age, Reduced Platelet Count or Function, Re- Bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic Factors, Excessive Fall Risk and Stroke), ATRIA (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation), and HAS-BLED ( Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile International Normalized Ratio, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol). Τhe relative predictive values of these bleeding scores have not previously been compared. METHODS: RESULTS: The HAS-BLED score performed best in predicting any clinically relevant bleeding, reflected both in net reclassification improvement (10.3% and 13% improvement compared with HEMORR(2)HAGES and ATRIA, respectively) and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analyses (c-indexes: 0.60 vs. 0.55 and 0.50 for HAS-BLED vs. HEMORR(2)AGES and ATRIA, respectively). Using decision-curve analysis, the HAS-BLED score demonstrated superior performance compared with ATRIA and HEMORR(2)HAGES at any threshold probability for clinically relevant bleeding. HAS-BLED was the only score that demonstrated a significant predictive performance for intracranial hemorrhage (c-index: 0.75; p = 0.03). An ATRIA score >3 was not significantly associated with the risk for any clinically relevant bleeding on Cox regression or on ROC analysis (c-index: 0.50; p = 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: All 3 tested bleeding risk-prediction scores demonstrated only modest performance in predicting any clinically relevant bleeding, although the HAS-BLED score performed better than the HEMORR(2)HAGES and ATRIA scores, as reflected by ROC analysis, reclassification analysis, and decision-curve analysis. Only HAS-BLED demonstrated a significant predictive performance for intracranial hemorrhage. Given its simplicity, the HAS-BLED score may be an attractive method for the estimation of oral anticoagulant-related bleeding risk for use in clinical practice, supporting recommendations in international guidelines.
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Authors | Stavros Apostolakis, Deirdre A Lane, Yutao Guo, Harry Buller, Gregory Y H Lip |
Journal | Journal of the American College of Cardiology
(J Am Coll Cardiol)
Vol. 60
Issue 9
Pg. 861-7
(Aug 28 2012)
ISSN: 1558-3597 [Electronic] United States |
PMID | 22858389
(Publication Type: Comparative Study, Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't)
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Copyright | Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
Chemical References |
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Topics |
- Aged
- Anticoagulants
(adverse effects)
- Atrial Fibrillation
(drug therapy)
- Female
- Hemorrhage
(chemically induced)
- Humans
- Male
- Middle Aged
- Predictive Value of Tests
- Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
- Risk Assessment
- Warfarin
(adverse effects)
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