Cyclooxygenase (COX)-derived
prostaglandin E(2) (
PGE(2)) plays a role in the development and progression of several
tumor types including
head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (
HNSCC). Measurements of urinary
PGE metabolite (
PGE-M) can be used as an index of systemic
PGE(2) production. In ever smokers, increased levels of urinary
PGE-M reflect increased COX-2 activity. In this study, we determined whether baseline levels of urinary
PGE-M were prognostic for ever smoker
HNSCC patients. A retrospective chart review of ever smoker
HNSCC patients treated with curative intent was done. Fifteen of 31 evaluable patients developed progressive disease (recurrence or a second primary
tumor) after a median follow-up of 38 months. There were no statistically significant differences between patients with (n = 15) or without
disease progression (n = 16) with regard to stage, site, treatment received, smoking status, and
aspirin use during follow-up. Median urinary
PGE-M levels were significantly higher in
HNSCC patients with
disease progression (21.7 ng/mg
creatinine) compared with patients without (13.35 ng/mg
creatinine; P = 0.03). Importantly, patients with high baseline levels of urinary
PGE-M had a significantly greater risk of
disease progression (hazard ratio, 4.76, 95% CI, 1.31-17.30; P < 0.01) and death (hazard ratio, 9.54; 95% CI, 1.17-77.7; P = 0.01) than patients with low baseline levels of urinary
PGE-M. These differences were most evident among patients with early-stage disease. Taken together, our findings suggest that high baseline levels of urinary
PGE-M indicate a poor prognosis in
HNSCC patients. Possibly,
HNSCC patients with high COX-2 activity manifested by elevated urinary
PGE-M will benefit from treatment with a
COX-2 inhibitor.