One-hour plasma glucose concentration and the metabolic syndrome identify subjects at high risk for future type 2 diabetes.

• Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of 1-h plasma glucose concentration and the metabolic syndrome in predicting future risk of type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 1,611 subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study, who were free of type 2 diabetes at baseline; who had plasma glucose and insulin concentrations measured at time 0, 30, 60, and 120 min during the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT); and who had their diabetes status determined with an OGTT after 7-8 years of follow-up, were evaluated. Two models, based on glucose tolerance status, 1-h plasma glucose concentration, and presence of the metabolic syndrome, were tested in predicting the risk for type 2 diabetes at 7-8 years of follow-up. RESULTS: A cutoff point of 155 mg/dl for the 1-h plasma glucose concentration during the OGTT was used to stratify subjects in each glucose tolerance group into low, intermediate, and high risk for future type 2 diabetes. A model based upon 1-h plasma glucose concentration, Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III criteria for the metabolic syndrome, and fasting plasma glucose, independent of 2-h plasma glucose, performed equally well in stratifying nondiabetic subjects into low, intermediate, and high risk for future type 2 diabetes and identified a group of normal glucose-tolerant subjects who were at very high risk for future type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The plasma glucose concentration at 1 h during the OGTT is a strong predictor of future risk for type 2 diabetes. A plasma glucose cutoff point of 155 mg/dl and the ATP III criteria for the metabolic syndrome can be used to stratify nondiabetic subjects into three risk groups: low, intermediate, and high risk.
• Authors: Muhammad A Abdul-Ghani, Tamam Abdul-Ghani, Nibal Ali, Ralph A Defronzo (Affiliation: Divisions of Diabetes and Epidemiology, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, Texas, USA. abdulghani at uthscsa.edu)
• Journal: Diabetes care (Diabetes Care) Vol. 31 Issue 8 Pg. 1650-5 (Aug 2008) ISSN: 1935-5548 [Electronic] United States
• PMID: 18487478 (Publication Type: Journal Article)

Chemical References

• Blood Glucose

Topics

• Adult
• Blood Glucose (metabolism)
• Body Mass Index
• Body Size
• Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 (epidemiology)
• Fasting
• Female
• Glucose Tolerance Test
• Humans
• Male
• Metabolic Syndrome X (blood, complications)
• Middle Aged
• Risk Factors
• Texas (epidemiology)